Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence: assessing the performance of a risk score for future onset of depression in an independent Brazilian sample

Objective: The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence Risk Score (IDEA-RS) was recently developed in Brazil using data from the Pelotas 1993 Birth Cohort to estimate the individualized probability of developing depression in adolescence. This model includes 11 sociodemographic variables and has been assessed in longitudinal studies from four other countries. We aimed to test the performance of IDEA-RS in an independent, community-based, school-attending sample within the same country: the Brazilian High-Risk Cohort. Methods: Standard external validation, refitted, and case mix-corrected models were used to predict depression among 1442 youth followed from a mean age of 13.5 years at baseline to 17.7 years at follow-up, using probabilities calculated with IDEA-RS coefficients. Results: The area under the curve was 0.65 for standard external validation, 0.70 for the case mix-corrected model, and 0.69 for the refitted model, with discrimination consistently above chance for predicting depression in the new dataset. There was some degree of miscalibration, corrected by model refitting (calibration-in-the-large reduced from 0.77 to 0). Conclusion: IDEA-RS was able to parse individuals with higher or lower probability of developing depression beyond chance in an independent Brazilian sample. Further steps should include model improvements and additional studies in populations with high levels of subclinical symptoms to improve clinical decision making.

Physical activity and depressive symptoms among adolescents in a school-based sample

Objective: To explore associations between self-reported weekly physical activity and depressive symptomatology among adolescents in a school-based sample from Brazil. Methods: We surveyed 7,405 adolescents aged 14 to 16 years in 101 public schools in Porto Alegre, Brazil. We assessed physical activity using an adapted version of the Patient-Centered Assessment and Counseling for Exercise Plus Nutrition - Adolescent Physical Activity Measure (PACE+), and depressive symptoms using the Brazilian Portuguese version of the Patient Health Questionnaire - Adolescent Version. We compared the depressive symptom scores among adolescents with varying levels of physical activity. Results: Of the overall sample, 84.4% exercised less than the recommended frequency of 60 minutes/day, at least 5 days/week, of moderate to intense physical activity (PACE+ score ≥ 5). Adolescents whose physical activity levels fell below that threshold had higher median depression scores (8 [IQR = 10] vs. 7 [IQR = 9], W = 4060461, p < 0.001). A similar pattern was observed for depression scores in those with PACE+ < 1 (median of 10 [IQR = 11]) and ≥ 1 (7 [IQR = 9], W = 7457608, p < 0.001). Conclusion: In this large sample of Brazilian adolescents, those who exercised less frequently and vigorously than their peers reported more depressive symptoms.